by 2015 Caspian basin energy production could reach 4.3 million bpd, concluding that in addition to the region's proven reserves of 17-49 billion barrels, comparable to Qatar at the lower estimate and Libya on the high end, the region could contain an additional hydrocarbon reserves up to 235 billion barrels of oil, roughly equivalent to a quarter of the Middle East's total proven reserves.  Nor is oil the only energy deposit there.  The Caspian's potential natural gas reserves are as large as the region's proven gas reserves and could yield another potential 328 trillion cubic feet of gas.

[For Russia] an independent Chechnya could not only lead to a loss of revenue from the republic’s modest oil production (of such quality that Chechen oil was used to light lamps in the Vatican) and ruin plans to extract transit fees for Azeri “early oil,” but lead to a significant potential loss of Caspian reserves once the sea’s waters and seabed were divided.